Implementing of RCPs Scenarios for the Prediction of Evapotranspiration in Egypt
M. A. Abdrabbo
Central Laboratory for Agriculture Climate, Agriculture Research Center, CLAC– ARC, Giza, Egypt.
A. A. Farag
Central Laboratory for Agriculture Climate, Agriculture Research Center, CLAC– ARC, Giza, Egypt
W. M. S. El-Desokey *
Central Laboratory for Agriculture Climate, Agriculture Research Center, CLAC– ARC, Giza, Egypt
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
This study investigates the projected changes in evapotranspiration in Egypt, with a focus on the Delta, Middle and Upper Egypt regions. Maximum and minimum air temperature were statistically downscaled and compared with current climate (defined as the period 1971–2000). FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation was used to estimate ETo using climatic data Evapotranspiration is estimated based on the predicted maximum and minimum temperature under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 – RCP4.5 – RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) during three time series (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) Other climate factors i.e., radiation, relative humidity and wind speed, used from current climate data. The obtained results revealed that maximum and minimum air temperatures increased under all RCPs scenarios compared to current data. Moreover, the RCP8.5 had the highest maximum and minimum air temperature compared to the other RCPs scenarios. It was found that for all future periods the annual evapotranspiration will increase for all agro-meteorological zones by uneven values. Results also revealed that ETo increased significantly in different tested time series compared to current ETo values. The values of ETo for the 2071-2100 period were higher than that for the 2011-2040 period or mid-term (2041-2070) period. The highest ETo values was predicted in this study by RCP8.5 during the 2071 – 2100 time series in the Upper Egypt region.
Keywords: Downscale climatic data, Maximum and minimum temperature, Penman, Montheith equation, RCPs scenarios