An Investigation of the Relationship between Climate Change, Water Demand and Price of Wheat and Maize Crops in Egypt
I. I. Sadek *
Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC), Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt.
Fatma S. S. Moursy
Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC), Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt.
M. A. M. Heggi
Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC), Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt.
A. A. Farag
Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC), Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The objective of this work was to estimated crop yield production, water demand and prices for wheat (Triticum aestivum vulgar. L) and maize (zea maiz. L), under two climate change scenarios (A1 and B1) and compare this results to the current statues. Fluxes of production, water demand and prices were evaluated in three different climatic areas (Lower, Middle and Upper Egypt) through 25 years from 1988 to 2012. Estimations for the production, water demand and prices were done for both crops at years 2025, 2050 and 2100.
Concerning the estimated yield production, obtained results presented a negative relationship between both wheat and maize yield and climate change circumstances in the studied areas. However, a positive relationship were found between water demand and prices in a side and increasing air temperature under climate change conditions on the other side. On other hand, the results lead to reduction of water use efficiency (WUE) and return of water unit at three areas. Also, the greatest shortage was indicated in estimated year 2100.
Keywords: Climate change, wheat, maize, water demand, prices, production, estimate